Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
